Spaghetti models explained
A spaghetti plot shows the forecast path of a storm's center from many different computer models on one map. Each line is one model's guess. When the lines bunch together, forecasters are more confident. When they spread apart, the future track is uncertain.
The main models
- GFS (American): NOAA's global model.
- ECMWF ("the Euro"): the European global model, often among the most accurate for track.
- UKMET and CMC: the British and Canadian global models.
- HAFS: NOAA's hurricane-specific models, built to forecast intensity and structure.
- Ensembles (like GEFS): the same model run many times with small changes, to show the range of outcomes.
- Consensus (like TVCN): an average of several models, and usually more accurate than any one model.
Models vs. the official forecast
Models are tools, not forecasts. National Hurricane Center forecasters weigh all of them, plus observations from satellites and Hurricane Hunter aircraft, to make the official track, shown in black on our spaghetti plot.
The cone of uncertainty
The NHC cone shows where the storm's center will probably go. It's sized so the center stays inside it about two-thirds of the time. Wind, surge and rain often reach far outside the cone, so being outside it doesn't mean you're safe.
Tips for reading them
- Don't focus on a single line, especially an outlier on social media.
- Look at the trend over several runs. Shifts from run to run are normal.
- Model tracks more than 5 days out can be off by hundreds of miles.
- Track and intensity are different problems. A good track doesn't mean a good wind forecast.
More hurricane basics
General information, not an official forecast. Always follow the National Hurricane Center, the National Weather Service and your local emergency management.